Intelligence reports
Market analysis built from public data and news, three times a week. Posts from June 3 to October 2, 2026 are retrospective analysis written in October 2026.
The 10-year hit its highest since 2002 and Fed hike odds collapsed. A soft 29,000 jobs print lifted stocks Friday, but the Dow still lost 1.26% on the week.
The 10-year yield just hit its highest since 2002 as oil swung near $100. Why bonds are steering stocks, small caps and gold, and why PCE and GDP pull in opposite directions.
Tech led last week while small caps slipped and the 10-year closed at 5.17%. Oil now reacts to Trump's Hormuz rejection, with PCE, ISM and jobs data on deck.
The 10-year hit 2007 levels and mortgages topped 7%, yet the S&P 500 rose 1.21% for its first winning week in three as AI giants led and small caps slipped.
The flash PMI showed the fastest US business growth in over five years, with input costs rising at the steepest pace in four years. With the Nasdaq at records, strong data cuts both ways.
Big tech rose while the Dow lost 890 points as the Fed hiked and the 10-year closed at 5.01%. This week: Xi in Washington, flash PMIs, housing data and Costco.
The S&P 500 ended flat, but the Fed hiked, the 10-year finished above 5% and the BoJ hit its highest rate since 1995. The Dow fell 1.7%; the Nasdaq rose 0.7%.
Retail sales beat, oil hit $107 on a Saudi pipeline disruption and the 10-year touched 5% before the Fed's 2 pm call. Here is what the dots and Warsh could signal.
Yields jumped, oil topped $100 and small caps fell 2.4% last week. Now AI leaders urge a slowdown just as the Fed, BoE and BoJ all decide in one packed week.
The S&P 500 fell 0.80% for the week despite a Friday bounce, as Brent neared $110, the 10-year closed at 4.96% and Fed hike odds rose to 85% to 90%. Oracle lifted AI hardware.
Brent is back above $100, the 10-year touched 4.85% and markets price about 62% odds of a September Fed hike. Here is how an oil shock travels from the pump to policy.
Wall Street is closed for Labor Day after a flat week for stocks and a 9.6% jump in WTI. PPI, CPI, the ECB and Oracle now test that calm ahead of the Sep 15 to 16 FOMC.